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국제 금거래시장의 붕괴의 서곡
금괴에대한 현물가격이 치솟는 현상과 금보증 증권 선물시세가 거래 중단되는 문제로 인한 가격교란 현상이 금거래 시장의 붕괴의 전조가 아닌가 예측하고 있습니다.<피터김 , 2010.02.17>
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1265295600.php
Breakdown in the Gold Market
By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com
- Posted Thursday, 4 February 2010
A great disconnect exists in the gold market between the exchange futures contract price (the paper price) and the gold bullion paid price for transactions (the physical price). The differential in price is growing wider, enough to place tremendous pressure on the gold market itself. Look not to the gold premium paid for purchases, but to high volume purchases in the tens of million$. In mid-December, almost every demand for gold contract delivery was matched by a cash delivery, complete with 25% bonus premium offered. The officials even produced a new ledger item called 'Cash For Delivery' that was necessary to balance their badgered books. It prompted little attention. Some call it a basic bribe. Others call it a technical default.
Fast approaching is the event of GAME OVER for London, a condition that has already reached critical level, according to a key reliable source of information with London connections and direct experience with its market events. How long can a major metals exchange sell contracts but have miniscule supply of gold in their vaulted possession? The paper gold market and the physical gold bullion market have finally separated in a practical manner, meaning actual gold has almost no role anymore in London paper contract settlement. The absence of gold in London requires extraordinary tactics to settle contracts and to obtain gold bullion. Red tape procedures delay delivery for individuals, and bribes accompany gold delivery demands as standard practice. The London Bullion Market Assn has almost zero gold, its supply having been drained in high volumes since early December, a process currently in acceleration. The opportunity to convert fiat money into precious metal at prices considered reasonable is also vanishing. The London gold banker said,
"There is going on a lot more than meets the eye. The physical system is actually consolidating bigtime and is organizing itself with lightning speed, totally hidden from pretty much anyone, even the so-called insiders. The paper precious metal market and the physical precious metal market have defacto disconnected. The paper and physical gold markets currently operate in parallel universes. The outflow of physical metal from bank vaults is happening at a mind bending pace."
Notice the reference to consolidation and re-organization in a manner not apparent to those fixated on the existing cockamamy corrupted system that is permitted by loyalist regulators. The officials in the LBMA, COMEX, USDept Treasury, and elsewhere are struggling to maintain the current system, and reportedly are not in step with awareness of the newly devised structures coming into place. In the background, far from view, new systems are being fabricated from scratch. Some involve complex barter systems soon to emerge and hit the scene with a splash, with impressive vertical integration. At the same time, new currencies for usage are still undergoing planning, foundation setup, contract latticework, and more for actual implementation.
The true gold price might very soon become unknown, an extremely positive development. Telltale events such as bankruptcy, lawsuits, and arrests are likely to come, all in time, since the breakdown in order has led to extraordinary reactions. Right now, we see extremely strong tactics using naked gold short contracts at the London metals exchange (LBMA) and the COMEX in the United States to drive down the gold price. It is all illegal and permitted. Margin calls have hit, forcing further selling of paper contracts. Gold investor sentiment among the naive and less informed has been dragging, ever since early December.
The world is approaching a climax event. Sure, many analysts have made such a claim for months. But with Europe in flux, the USCongress in flux, the Persian Gulf in flux, the US-China trade battles escalating, and USTreasury debt finance recognized more and more as monetized printing press activity, we are truly approaching a climax event as gold metal has exited the London market. The trigger event is unknown. It will likely not be directly related to the above event fronts. It will probably be a typical garden variety event pertaining to the far from ordinary stresses tied to the ongoing crisis in the credit market, gold market, and currency market.
The financial press is critically important precisely now, for not spilling the facts on the current gold market breakdown and divergence. Much of the pressures are hidden though, since the financial press networks report only the official paper-based prices. Do not expect to read in Reuters or Bloomberg or the Associated Press or Wall Street Journal or the New York Times or Investors Business Daily or Barrons that a grotesque gold shortage exists in the London metals exchange or at the COMEX in New York and Chicago. They will not report that London is virtually drained of gold, yet still sells gold contracts. Accurate news reporting would accelerate the breakdown and remove the possibility for time extension. The press will not report that billionaires are emptying their gold bullion accounts at rapidfire pace, out of gross distrust of the bankers, since gold leasing has illegally been standard practice for many years. Imagine selling lumber contracts without wood delivered. Imagine selling mortgages without home titles delivered. Actually, Wall Street did precisely that from 2003 to 2007.
LONDON AS TARGET
Last August 2009, a busload of former key employees from the USDept Treasury and Wall Street firms arrived in Brussels Belgium. They turned themselves in to legal authorities in an attempt to avoid eventual prosecution. They came loaded with evidence, documents, emails, testimony, boxes of CDs, and much more. They won asylum in exchange for turning state's evidence. The Brussels Serious Fraud Squad is running with the data. All indications point to a strategic decision made by the Brussels Interpol squad. Their target is London, because it lies at the center of the syndicate enforcement of the fiat currency system, where the gold suppression is centered, where the greatest point of weakness exists, where the absence of gold is most glaring to make them vulnerable. London is the weakest link in the Ponzi Scheme chain, known as the global monetary system with USDollar price mechanism and USTreasury Bond reserve component in banks.
Another important event occurred, this in December. A clearinghouse held a Letter of Intent to supply the London metals exchange with 250 metric tonnes of gold bullion. The contract was interrupted. The method used to disrupt and derail the contract is a story unto itself. Little is known in verifiable form. The point is that London bankers were denied an important channel of gold in supply. At the same time, demands came from private billionaires to take back possession of their gold in allocated accounts. They are often called in the gold industry the 'sovereigns' politely. When pressed for details, my sources tell of their Chinese background. In recent weeks, the billionaires have been joined by others from Central Europe, in particular from Switzerland. So London is being drained of gold and not being resupplied, from the front door and from the back door. A breakdown is coming, and accidents assured. Gold is the ultimate vulnerability. It underpins the USDollar, competes with the USTreasury Bond, while the USDollar remains buttressed by the Petro-Dollar defacto standard. That too has been served notice. See the Saudi announcement last May 2009, with Russia, China, Japan, and Germany at their side. Eventually, crude oil sales will not be fulfilled in US$ settlement.
PARADOX OF INELASTICITY
Gold is unique as a market, as far as its tendency to seek equilibrium from matched supply and demand. Since the year 2005, my analysis has pointed out the unique condition of gold as far as supply inelasticity is concerned. My forecast over four years ago was to expect less gold output from the mining industry, even with higher gold price. That forecast was correct. In addition to more difficult mine projects, deeper ore bodies, thinner gold veins, and more costly projects, other paradoxical factors have been at work. The industry projects surely translate greater challenge into lower output. Introduce the lunatic management of the Marxist leaders in South Africa concerning electricity production. Dirty coal at power plants and higher mining firm taxation assure much lower gold output from the industry's former leader. Numerous are the reasons for lower gold output in the current year, even with high gold price. The industry is in decline. Ultra-rich ore bodies are long gone.
My forecast of lower gold output at higher gold price, the inelastic factor, went like this. As large mining firms suffer the consequences of their unwise (surely illicit, perhaps illegal) future gold sales within their cratered hedge books, the losses would approach catastrophic levels. Take Barrick Gold for example. In 2007, they announced the complete cover of their disastrous hedge book. They lied and covered about one third, using dilutive new stock issuance and new long-term corporate debt. In summer 2009, they announced again the complete cover of their disastrous hedge book. The financial press forgot that they supposedly removed all future commitments just two years ago, hardly a surprise lapse of memory. Again Barrick lied, since they ran out of funds from yet another grand stock issuance that again crippled their stock from vast dilution. The Toronto and Wall Street investment community still loves this total dog of a stock, as collusion and kickbacks must be main features to prop the stock. Just look at its Board of Directors to detect vast syndicate presence. In fact, it has two Boards to provide extra service to the stockholders, more like one to the syndicate. So in conclusion, the cover of huge hedge books cost the big mining firms tens of billion$ in funds that otherwise would be devoted to mine projects and additional gold output. It did not happen, since mine industry funds went into the sewer of future gold price suppression. The most curious aspect of this factor is the lack of investor lawsuits for failed fiduciary responsibility.
The flip side to this important price reaction factor is the demand inelasticity. When on the upslope, the phenomenon is called Gold Fever. A rising gold price prompts a rising demand for gold. Imagine a 50% increase in the price of televisions resulting in lines forming to buy more costly TVs. Never. But such is normal for gold. When on the downslope, the phenomenon works in reverse. A falling gold price, in particular for the paper gold price dictated by brutal gold futures contract pressures, often not reinforced by the presence of gold bullion, results in a gradual darkened gloomy sentiment for gold. People do not rush to buy more gold since it has been offered at a cheaper price. Rather, they are trapped in margin calls when leverage is applied. Rather, they give up and sell out, dump their gold, and lick their wounds. These are the legion of dummies and risk junkies. These are the vast hordes who do not exercise patience and prudence, fully aware of the gold exchange distress. They will return, but when they do, they will purchase gold at a price 50% higher than when they abandoned the precious yellow metal. They will double up when the gold price has doubled.
DIVERGENCE TOWARD COLLAPSE
My forecast on gold made a couple months ago within the Hat Trick Letter was clear. The gold price will experience a remarkable divergence. As the collapse approaches, the paper gold price (from futures contracts) will decline while the physical gold price (from bullion purchases) will rise sharply. The differential will grow gradually at first, then burst into a grotesque price disparity. When this occurs, expect darkness to fall upon the gold market. At this point, pure speculation follows. My expectation is for the official gold metal exchanges to shut down, at least temporarily. They have no gold, after all, so there aint nuthin to sell! To remain open only aggravates their contract and legal risk. Look for prosecutions of middle level officials from the exchanges, heavy police pressures put on them, and deals cut to bring down the kingpins. This is standard police procedure. Lawsuits are the wild card, hard to control, difficult to predict.
Pressures build that contribute toward the divergence. Whenever large deliveries are made in recent months from the gold exchanges, a new rigorous procedure must be followed. Delivery verification involves strict assayer information like certificates and dates and firm names and stamps. Before autumn 2009, such procedures were unheard of. One can make two conclusions. First, the buyers are distrustful of the gold bullion quality, amidst preval!ent stories of not just 80-year old bottom of the barrel London gold bar quality, but of tungsten bars with gold plating. My sources tell of widespread cooperation toward data gathering for the documentation of the pathways that prove broad tungsten bar fraud. The risk is palpable, as murder threats hang over the project. These are after all syndicates, and they have had full control of the government treasuries ever since 1992, when Robert Rubin infiltrated the scene as US Treasury Secretary from his former Goldman Sachs currency trading post.
My expectation is when the breakdown comes, several key locations across the world will post and publish their actual transaction prices without names. They will vary somewhat. Even today, the Hong Kong gold spot price differs from the London gold spot price by $10 to $20 per ounce. This is standard, and reflects different demand levels against different supply levels. However, in the not too distant future, several key locations will herald their actual gold prices, which will be averaged, thus enabling the first true gold prices in a few decades. That day is coming, and those who stubbornly hold their physical gold & silver, do not yield to pressures, do not react to phony paper prices, they will be rewarded.
People who expect that day to be accompanied by unaltered political and economic landscapes are badly misguided. Think ugly! In fact, some ugly developments already have begun to crop up. A new USGovt rule requires that any large volume gold purchase must satisfy strict anti-money laundering guidelines. So further restrictions have come. Maybe the day will come also for declaration of any American owning a foreign bank account to be illegal. Think desperation!
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